During Wednesday’s FOMC press conference, Jerome Powell discussed how the economy was performing well before the trade war began and acknowledged that the tariffs were much larger than anticipated. As a result, the Fed has increased its projections for the risk of higher unemployment and inflation. 

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Mortgage lenders and prospective borrowers looking for relief from high interest rates will need to wait longer. In a widely expected decision on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve kept rates steady at a range of 4.25% to 4.5% following its two-day meeting.

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With sales activity stuck in neutral through the first four months of the year, there’s not much to suggest that the 2025 housing market will be vastly improved from 2023 or 2024. But mortgage leaders and economists are expressing cautious optimism even as the cost of a home loan remains higher than Americans would like.

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This week, the Federal Reserve is holding a crucial meeting that could significantly influence the housing market in 2025 and 2026. The outcome could set the stage for mortgage rate cuts or a pause in action until there are shifts in the labor market. As many have observed, President Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Jerome Powell’s reluctance to lower rates. While replacing Powell is not currently an option, a leadership change will occur next year.

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Today’s jobs report showed positive growth, with 177,000 jobs added and an unemployment rate of 4.2%. Mortgage rates went up a tad today, but the spreads improved, which was a positive. As market drama calms down, we should see some improvement with the spreads, something I discussed in this recent episode of the HousingWire Daily podcast.

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