What will happen to mortgage rates now that China and the U.S. have made progress in their trade war, agreeing to a 90-day period of lower tariffs? Stocks are up considerably this morning and bond yields have also increased. This raises the question: Is the de-escalation of the trade war good for mortgage rates? The trade deals are just one factor, but I see three possible scenarios for mortgage rates in this environment.

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During Wednesday’s FOMC press conference, Jerome Powell discussed how the economy was performing well before the trade war began and acknowledged that the tariffs were much larger than anticipated. As a result, the Fed has increased its projections for the risk of higher unemployment and inflation. 

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Mortgage lenders and prospective borrowers looking for relief from high interest rates will need to wait longer. In a widely expected decision on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve kept rates steady at a range of 4.25% to 4.5% following its two-day meeting.

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This week, the Federal Reserve is holding a crucial meeting that could significantly influence the housing market in 2025 and 2026. The outcome could set the stage for mortgage rate cuts or a pause in action until there are shifts in the labor market. As many have observed, President Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Jerome Powell’s reluctance to lower rates. While replacing Powell is not currently an option, a leadership change will occur next year.

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