What will happen to mortgage rates now that China and the U.S. have made progress in their trade war, agreeing to a 90-day period of lower tariffs? Stocks are up considerably this morning and bond yields have also increased. This raises the question: Is the de-escalation of the trade war good for mortgage rates? The trade deals are just one factor, but I see three possible scenarios for mortgage rates in this environment.

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The mortgage market might still be sluggish, but for originators willing to look beyond the traditional, there’s real momentum building in the non-QM space. Tom Davis, Chief Sales Officer at Deephaven, is helping lead that charge — working with sales teams across the country to grow not just volume, but trust. In this conversation, Davis breaks down the surge in demand for second liens, DSCR loans, and alternative income documentation — and why originators who lean in now are setting themselves up for long-term success.

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If someone had told me that home sales would remain firm this year despite mortgage rates ranging from 7.25% to 6.64%, I would not have taken that bet. However, amid all the chaotic economic headlines of 2025 so far, the demand for mortgages is holding steady, even with the higher rates.

Let’s dig into the latest Housing Market Tracker data to see what last week brought us.

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Amid higher interest rates and a tight housing market, U.S. homeowners are increasingly choosing to renovate rather than relocate — and many are doing so under financial and emotional strain, according to a newly released nationwide survey.

A report released by Block Renovation, based on responses from more than 1,000 homeowners, paints a detailed picture of the home renovation experience in 2025.

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Mortgage lenders and prospective borrowers looking for relief from high interest rates will need to wait longer. In a widely expected decision on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve kept rates steady at a range of 4.25% to 4.5% following its two-day meeting.

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With sales activity stuck in neutral through the first four months of the year, there’s not much to suggest that the 2025 housing market will be vastly improved from 2023 or 2024. But mortgage leaders and economists are expressing cautious optimism even as the cost of a home loan remains higher than Americans would like.

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Refinancing activity is primed for a surge — but not the way we’ve seen in the

past.

It used to be that when rates dropped, demand would stay high for weeks or even

months. Lenders had time to scale up operations and ride the wave. Now, demand

comes in short, sharp bursts, triggered by even the slightest rate drops.

Take April 2025 for example. Mortgage rates briefly fell to 6.61%, their lowest

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This week, the Federal Reserve is holding a crucial meeting that could significantly influence the housing market in 2025 and 2026. The outcome could set the stage for mortgage rate cuts or a pause in action until there are shifts in the labor market. As many have observed, President Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Jerome Powell’s reluctance to lower rates. While replacing Powell is not currently an option, a leadership change will occur next year.

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Another jobs week has come and gone, and while we see some signs of a slowdown in the labor market, it’s not breaking. Since 2022, I have suggested that to get mortgage rates below 6% with a longer duration, we need to see either a shift in the labor market or additional rate cuts that would lower the Fed Funds rate to around 3.5% or below.

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eXp Luxury, the upscale division of real estate brokerage eXp Realty, is teaming with MORE Seller Financing to give luxury home sellers new tools to attract buyers and improve listing performance in a high interest rate environment.

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