What will happen to mortgage rates now that China and the U.S. have made progress in their trade war, agreeing to a 90-day period of lower tariffs? Stocks are up considerably this morning and bond yields have also increased. This raises the question: Is the de-escalation of the trade war good for mortgage rates? The trade deals are just one factor, but I see three possible scenarios for mortgage rates in this environment.

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The tit-for-tat trade war between China and the United States has deescalated for the first time since President Donald Trump took office, as the two countries announced Monday morning that they will temporarily lower their respective tariffs.

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If someone had told me that home sales would remain firm this year despite mortgage rates ranging from 7.25% to 6.64%, I would not have taken that bet. However, amid all the chaotic economic headlines of 2025 so far, the demand for mortgages is holding steady, even with the higher rates.

Let’s dig into the latest Housing Market Tracker data to see what last week brought us.

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President Donald Trump’s trade war has turned perceptions of the U.S. economy upside down, and data is beginning to trickle in on how tariffs might impact consumer behavior in the housing market.

The latest numbers come from Fannie Mae‘s Home Purchase Sentiment Index, which measures consumer attitudes on housing using six questions from a national survey. The survey was conducted from April 1-18.

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During Wednesday’s FOMC press conference, Jerome Powell discussed how the economy was performing well before the trade war began and acknowledged that the tariffs were much larger than anticipated. As a result, the Fed has increased its projections for the risk of higher unemployment and inflation. 

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Mortgage lenders and prospective borrowers looking for relief from high interest rates will need to wait longer. In a widely expected decision on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve kept rates steady at a range of 4.25% to 4.5% following its two-day meeting.

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Bill Pulte, the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and chair of the boards at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, said in an interview on Tuesday that a handful of employees at the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) who are from U.S. geopolitical foes China and North Korea have been referred to the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ).

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This week, the Federal Reserve is holding a crucial meeting that could significantly influence the housing market in 2025 and 2026. The outcome could set the stage for mortgage rate cuts or a pause in action until there are shifts in the labor market. As many have observed, President Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Jerome Powell’s reluctance to lower rates. While replacing Powell is not currently an option, a leadership change will occur next year.

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Today’s jobs report showed positive growth, with 177,000 jobs added and an unemployment rate of 4.2%. Mortgage rates went up a tad today, but the spreads improved, which was a positive. As market drama calms down, we should see some improvement with the spreads, something I discussed in this recent episode of the HousingWire Daily podcast.

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Economists are bracing for the possibility of job losses as a result of economic uncertainty, but so far they’re not happening enough to offset job gains.

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